New Zealand economy: 13 experts share their thoughts


According to a recent survey by Finder NZ, 73 per cent of experts surveyed expect a recession before 2025. It’s one of the thoughts shared by a panel of 13 experts and economists, who also weighed in on property prices and interest rates. 

Here are some key takeaways. 

Further mortgage rate increases on the cards

Nearly two in three experts surveyed (8 out of 13) expect the official cash rate (OCR) to peak at 3.5 per cent, up 1 per cent from July 2022, in an effort to keep inflation under control. 

As a direct consequence, further mortgage rate increases are expected by the end of the year, on top of inflation-driven rising living costs. 

What’s next for property prices?

Ten out of 12 panellists (83 per cent of experts surveyed) agreed that property prices will continue to fall in 2022, with higher interest rates and lower immigration levels being the main drivers.

Is a recession coming?

According to 8 out of 11 panellists, a recession may happen in either 2023 or 2024. How deep that might be will depend on the property market performance as well as inflation trends. 

Finder NZ also measured experts’ confidence in five key indicators, including wage growth, employment, cost of living, household debt, and housing affordability. Experts’ sentiment was the most positive towards housing affordability (36 per cent positive), and the most negative towards cost of living (82 per cent negative).

Do you have any questions for us?

Get in touch. With so much changing in the economy at the moment, having an expert in your corner can help you understand what the next steps might be and plan ahead.

Disclaimer: Please note that the content provided in this article is intended as an overview and as general information only. While care is taken to ensure accuracy and reliability, the information provided is subject to continuous change and may not reflect current developments or address your situation. Before making any decisions based on the information provided in this article, please use your discretion and seek independent guidance.